The Arctic isn’t the first region to come to mind when discussing international politics, investment opportunities or survival retreats. So why a blog specifically about this oft-neglected region? Below are a few reasons why it’s worth watching:
The Putorana Plateau in northern Siberia.
1. The Arctic will become much more important in the near future as the melting of Arctic ice opens up circumpolar shipping routes. They are shorter than the constricted passages through Suez, Panama and Malacca, and far less vulnerable to bottlenecks, piracy and terrorism.
2. The Arctic is a once in a century investment opportunity. As the ice and permafrost retreat, the physical infrastructure of industrial civilization will begin to overspread the region: ports, roads, railways, pipelines, mines, oil rigs, housing, farms, schools, shops and military bases. The four major populated regions encircling the Arctic Ocean – Alaska, Russia, Canada, Scandinavia (ARCS) – are all set for massive economic expansion in the decades ahead.
3. Nowhere else is global warming so intrinsically tied to the prospects of a region as the Arctic; it is the force awakening it from its long, cold hibernation into the strange lights and thrumming noises of the modern world. But the Arctic is not passive – how it reacts to higher temperatures will drastically affect the future course and magnitude of further global warming. Global ocean and air currents will be interrupted as the temperature differential between the Arctic and the tropics shrinks. One disturbing possibility is that the melting of the Siberian permafrost will release vast amounts of methane, a greenhouse gas that is far more potent than CO2, into the atmosphere, and tip the world into runaway climate change.
4. Many regions of the world are overpopulated and facing resource depletion (e.g. “peak oil”) and rising pollution. The Arctic defies these general trends. As good hydrocarbon and mineral sources deplete, the economics of Arctic resource extraction will become more and more attractive. As the global south sinks deeper into water crises, heat stress and energy shortages, the polar regions will be changing into habitable and rather agreeable places. Exploitation of the region’s plentiful resources – coal in Alaska; minerals in the Russian Far East; hydrocarbons in the oceanic basin off Siberia; etc. – can sustain billions of people for at least a few more decades. That’s enough time to make use of the Arctic region’s plentiful wind and water fluxes to rebuild industrialism on a sustainable basis.
5. The Arctic melt is the kick-start to its own history. Both Russia and Canada are accelerating their Arctic military buildups. NATO has held yearly military exercises in northern Norway from 2006, in which the (“fictional”) enemy team has a rather uncanny resemblance to Russia. No doubt China and European coalitions will soon take an interest too. The father of geopolitics, Halford Mackiner, claimed that control of Eastern Europe was the key to world power. In the 21st century, the prime strategic asset will become the Arctic Ocean.
6. James Lovelock, the inventor of the Gaia theory, believes that “before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable”. If you think climate-pessimists and doomers like him are correct, more or less, then you would do well to start planning a “doomstead” in the Far North. The Norwegians have already built the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, and one day perhaps polar city refuges will follow.
7. That few blogs (yet) exist on the Arctic is a good enough reason to start one, no? Besides, I think I can do a decent job of it. First, I know Russian – the other main language of the Arctic apart from English. This blog is about the Arctic, as opposed to just the North American Arctic. Second, my areas of blogging interest, centered around Russia, geopolitics, energy, and futurism, are well suited for an Arctic theme. One can even say that the Arctic brings them all together.
Why is the blog called Arctic Progress?
The name is a tribute to Joe Romm of Climate Progress, who runs what is probably the best blog about climate change on the interwebs. But it can also hint at other things, such as: (1) my left-of-center (on most issues) economic and social views, (2) that the Arctic is becoming interesting and dynamic, and (3) the hope that the Arctic’s inevitable development proceeds in a sustainable and progressive manner.
That said, I’m not an ideologue. Arctic Progress sees the world in realist hues, doesn’t care for moralizing, and given the choice, would always opt for hard-headed, objective analysis over platitudes to respectability.
What’s the meaning of this site’s icon, the cyan circle with the diagonal line through it?
A formerly pristine and innocent Arctic being penetrated by late industrial capitalism with its delusions of never-ending “progress”? I don’t know, feel free to interpret it as you wish.
