Exciting Stuff In The Works

Posted on February 15, 2011 by AK

Image credit – Desktop 3d.

No, we haven’t frozen solid in the Arctic wildernesses.

In fact, not only are we alive and kicking, but we have some pretty cool developments for ARCTIC PROGRESS in the works. Hence the lack of posting.

This Thursday, we are rolling out a special free subscription newsletter service for Arctic aficionados and amateurs alike. If you crave for the latest filtered news and cutting-edge commentary on this emerging region, then look no further – you won’t find it anywhere else.

In the meantime, the website is going to be radically reworked to a new theme and style. Regular blog posting will resume next week.

But all this is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. In the next months, our expert team of writers and researchers will be transforming the Library here into the biggest repository of information resources on the Arctic in the world today. And even that isn’t all…

So watch out – the avalanche is just getting started!

Russia To Militarize Kurils In Response To Japanese Claims

Posted on February 12, 2011 by AK

Atlasov Island, northernmost of the Kurils. Image credit – Wikipedia.

This week has seen rising tensions over the Kuril Islands in the Russian Far East, which are claimed by Japan. There was heated rhetoric from senior Japanese politicians and the burning of a Russian flag on Feb 7th at a Japanese protest over Russian officials’ visits to the territories, including that of President Medvedev last November. This spurred a Russian youth group to picket the Japanese Embassy in Moscow.

On Feb 9th, President Medvedev held a meeting with the Defense Minister and the Minister for Regional Development, giving instructions to improve regional defense capacities into order to guarantee Russian sovereignty over the Kurils.

A source in the Defense Ministry told RIA Novosti that the first two of the four Mistral helicopter carriers that Russia has acquired from France are to be deployed to the Pacific Fleet. This is to be accompanied by modernization of the regional 18th Division, and the addition of two S-400 “Triumf” SAM divisions, self-propelled Pantsyr-S1 air defense systems, several modern radar stations, and a Bastion P coastal defense system armed with Yakhont anti-ship missiles. Afterwards there are plans to construct an air base on the islands, with Su-35 fighters and anti-submarine aircraft.

Nonetheless, as noted by Nikolai Tulaev, a member of the Federation Council on Defense and Security, even after the military upgrades the Kurils will remain far less militarized than under the Soviet period.

On Jan 25 this year, France and Russia signed a $1.9 billion agreement signed to sell two of the Mistral helicopter carriers to the Russian Navy and build another two under French license. The vessels can carry up to 16 helicopters, 450 troops, and 40 tanks or other heavy vehicles. The first Mistral is due to be deliver by year-end 2013. Image credit – Defense Industry Daily.

Soviet troops seized the four Kurils islands near Hokkaido as part of military operations against Japan at the end of World War Two. This reversed the Russian Empire’s cession of South Sakhalin to Japan in the treaty following its defeat in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5

We acknowledge that many borders disputes are highly complex. But for a variety of legal and practical reasons, Arctic Progress believes that the case of the Kurils is about as clear cut as they come.

First, in the purely legal sense, Japan had officially forsworn any future claims to the Kurils in the 1951 Treaty of San Francisco.

Second, Japan refused a Russian standing offer from the 1990′s to 2005 to take two of the four islands as part of a final peace settlement. This offer is unlikely to ever reappear. In the “time of troubles” following the Soviet collapse, Russia was an impoverished former superpower; a state whose writ was barely felt on its Pacific seaboard. Now it is flush with oil money, in stark contrast to Japan’s chronic budget deficits and 220%-of-GDP debt. Japan has far less to offer Russia than a decade ago.

Map of the Kurils: Japan wants all four held since the start of diplomatic relations with Russia in 1855; Russia was once willing to offer Shikotan and the Habomai Islands. Image credit – Wikipedia.

Third, surrendering the Kurils would undermine one of the main pillars of the global postwar order – the principle that the territorial changes of World War Two are irreversible. Challenging this principle would open up a whole can of worms not only in Russia, but around the world – Italy and western Slovenia; Germany and Polish Silesia and the Danzig Corridor; etc. And why not? Japan might as well demand back Karafuto, the southern half of Sakhalin it seized in 1905 and lost again in 1945.

Fourth, Russia’s elites have sunk far too much political capital into asserting Russia’s sovereignty over the Kurils in the past few years – culminating in President Medvedev’s visit to the islands in November 2010. This is in addition to the near-universal public opposition against giving back the Kurils to Japan. Territorial concessions will be politically suicidal.

We can state with some certainty that the Kurils will remain Russia for the foreseeable future. The continued Japanese attempts to argue otherwise are most likely a play to popular sentiment under their unstable political situation, and not a realistic appraisal of its foreign policy interests.

Iceberg Cornucopia

Posted on February 11, 2011 by AK

If you have a burning interest, or even a passing curiosity, in icebergs – then you’ve come to the right page!

“LADY TRIGGER” for Trigger Pit, Feb 7, 2011.

Icebergs are large pieces of ice that broke off from a snow-formed glacier or an iceshelf. Where a glacier meets the sea, humongous chunks of ice break off from the face of the glacier; this is known as “calving”and this is how many icebergs are “born.” Old icebergs may be hundreds of thousands of years old. Many years of falling snow, consisting of snow crystals by the countless billions, act like tiny mirrors and reflect the light. Some icebergs are also formed by freezing ocean water instead of snow and those areas are full of tiny air bubbles. Beautiful bluish streaks that appear in some icebergs are caused by the refreezing of meltwater that previously filled very old glacier ice crevasses. The very dense, very old ice captures the sun’s light and allows only the high-energy blue wavelengths to escape. The beautiful blue icebergs change color and intensity according to the position of the sun.

Click here for the full 37 photos.

Ice calving at Glaciar Perito Moreno, Argentina Christof Berger

Colorful iceberg with blue stripe Jeff McNeill

Steve Irwin iceberg John (guano)

Frozen tidal wave Hoax Slayer

Danmark O, Fohn Fjord, Renodde – iceberg Rita Willaert

Blue ice at South Polar circle Antarktika

See more iceberg pics here!

Explore The North Pole In All 3 Dimensions!

Posted on February 9, 2011 by AK

Ice diving. Image credit – NOAA.

Ever fantasized about parachuting off the top of the world, or exploring the icy depths below the North Pole? If so, you might be in luck!

Professional adventurer Nigel Gifford is organizing a skydive onto the North Pole and circumnavigational safari dive underneath the ice. This “Above and Below” expedition is scheduled for April 9-23, 2011.

The travel details. The courageous heroes who sign up will arrive at Kirkenes, Norway, and continue on an internal flight to Longyearbyen, Svalbard. They will then take a transport aircraft to the Russian Ice Station Borneo on the pack ice, followed by a helicopter flight to the North Pole.

There they will spend three days and two nights at the expedition’s North Pole Base Camp.

Prices for 2011 are dependent on numbers attending and are as follows:
	16 PARTICIPANTS	12 – 15 PARTICIPANTS	8 – 11 PARTICIPANTS
The Complete Adventure	£36,545	£40,163	£46,772
Ice Dive Only	£35,990	£39,875	£43,650
Tandem Skydive Only	£35,768	£38,850	£43,825
World Record Observer Only	£34,730	£37,970	£40,562
Prices are per person, minimum 8 participants

If $60,000 is just a bit on the pricey side, you can wait until the summer and sign up for an Arctic cruise on a Russian nuclear icebreaker to the North Pole.

The Murmansk-based 50 Years Since Victory will depart with up to 128 passengers in July 2011. During the 15 day voyage, it will cross the Barents Sea, plow into the icecap in the waters near Franz Josef’s Land, and then continue onto the North Pole.

The 15 day long expedition cross the Barents Sea before crashing into the Arctic ice-cap in the waters near Franz Josef’s Land and continues through the ice all the way to 90 degree north.

At $48,760 a standard room for a couple, prices are more than twice cheaper. But we at Arctic Progress would still prefer the skydiving and ice diving!

The Arctic Adventures Of Bruce Parry

Posted on February 8, 2011 by AK

Bruce Parry in the Arctic. Image credit – BBC.

If you’re living in Britain – or can get a UK IP address – there’s a nice Arctic treat for you in store at the BBC. It’s a five part documentary featuring TV explorer Bruce Parry and his adventures in the Far North, involving temperatures of as low as -50C, shared experiences with Inuit hunters and subsistence on raw seal to avoid death by starvation.

You can watch Bruce Parry’s Arctic here.

He has also written a book about his experiences, which Ruth Styles reviews for The Ecologist here. You can buy the hardcover at Amazon UK. We’ll keep you updated on its near-term release in the US. For now, you may familiarize yourself with his travels from the embedded interview and The Daily Mail article below.

AMANDA CABLE for The Daily Mail, Jan 1, 2011: The day a seal stopped me freezing to death.

When adventurer Bruce Parry set off on a three-day hunting trip across the Arctic for his latest BBC series, little did he realise that this expedition could well be his last.

In a place where temperatures can fall to -50C – when icicles hang from eyelashes and even a minute without gloves can result in losing your fingers to frostbite – a routine day of filming for the 41-year-old became a battle for survival.

The trip had not started well. Bruce and his indigenous Eskimo companions were hunting walrus for their fur and meat. But when no living creature had been spotted after 24 hours and the last of the meat had been fed to the husky dogs pulling the sledges, things began to look dire.

Review Of “The Magnetic North” By Sara Wheeler

Posted on February 6, 2011 by AK

“The Magnetic North: Notes from the Arctic Circle” by Sara Wheeler. Image credit – The Seattle Times.

DAVID B. WILLIAMS for The Seattle Times, Feb 5, 2011.

A review of Sara Wheeler’s new book, “The Magnetic North: Notes from the Arctic Circle,” a broad and engaging introduction to the Arctic — its history, its inhabitants and its challenges. …

In the late 1990s, British travel writer Sara Wheeler spent seven months in Antarctica, which led to her first book, the well-regarded “Terra Incognita: Travels in Antarctica.” Wheeler was drawn to the icy continent’s barrenness, where neither native people nor plants or animals had much of a presence on the land.

Antarctica was a metaphor for “an alternate and better world,” in contrast to the Arctic, which she viewed with prejudice as “the complicated, life-infested North,” she recalls in her new book. As politics and the climate changed, however, she was drawn to a place that she writes, “captures the spirit of the times.” The wonderfully named “The Magnetic North: Notes from the Arctic Circle” is her account of that change of heart.

China’s Snow Dragon Sweeps Into Arctic Ocean

Posted on February 5, 2011 by AK

China’s MV Xue Long is the largest non-nuclear icebreaker in the world. Image source – Polar Conversation Organization.

JOSEPH SPEARS for The Jamestown Foundation, Jan 28, 2011.

In a warming and changing Arctic, China is stepping up its activities in the Arctic Ocean Basin. While China’s interests and policy objectives in the Arctic Ocean Basin remain unclear, Beijing is increasingly active and vocal on the international stage on issues that concern the region. To that end, China is actively seeking to develop relationships with Arctic states and participate in Arctic multilateral organizations such as the Arctic Council. The region includes a rich basket of natural resources: The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that 25 percent of the world’s undiscovered hydrocarbon resources are found in the Arctic region along with 9 percent of the world’s coal along with other economically critical minerals. There is presently scarce open source information on China’s Arctic policy and very few public pronouncements on the Arctic by Chinese officials. This article is an attempt to describe China’s actions in the region.

With the world’s largest non-nuclear research icebreaker, Xue Long (Snow Dragon) China has embarked on four Arctic research expeditions in recent years into Arctic waters. This is part of China’s larger polar scientific research effort which has seen 26 expeditions in the Arctic and Antarctic since 1984. This past summer the vessel made it on a research voyage to 88 degrees North latitude which is only 120 nautical miles from the North Pole. Chinese research scientists from the fourth research expedition travelled to the North Pole via the vessel’s helicopter to conduct research, arriving at the North Pole on 15:38 p.m. (0738 GMT) Friday August 20, 2010 (China Daily, August 21, 2010). It was another first for China and clearly highlights a changing Arctic, which is seeing decreasing and thinning sea-ice year after year. A few years ago this would have been impossible with this ice-breaking research vessel because of the difficult sea-ice conditions and the thick multi-year ice, which has traditionally served as a barrier to all but the world’s largest nuclear icebreakers that fly the Russian flag. …

On March 5, 2010 the official China News Service relayed comments made by Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo, with respect to the Arctic at the Third Session of the Eleventh Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) when he advised Chinese leaders not to fall behind on Arctic Ocean exploration. Admiral Zhin stated “The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the North Pole and surrounding area are the common wealth of the world’s people and do not belong to any one country.” He went on to say “China must play an indispensable role in Arctic exploration as we have one-fifth of the world’s population.” He went on to criticize some countries for contesting sovereignty over the region, which impacts other nations (China News Service, March 5, 2010).

Russians Have Never Felt More Prosperous

Posted on February 5, 2011 by AK

Russian poverty – receding. Image credit – Andrew Kuznetsov.

Or at least this is the result of a new opinion survey from independent Russian polling organization Levada Center.

As the figures below show, in the past decade Russia has gone from being a lower-middle income country with a substantial class of destitutes, to one hosting a growing and substantial middle class with few extremely poor.

It is also interesting to note that as of January 2011, economic conditions across the entire social spectrum are now significantly better than their pre-crisis peaks in 2007-2008.

The % of Russians who…	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Barely make ends meet.	25	19	17	20	13	13	12	12	9	8
Can buy food, but clothes cause problems.	41	41	40	35	37	30	31	34	27	25
Can buy food & clothes, but consumer durables cause problems.	28	33	34	35	38	41	40	41	50	50
Can buy consumer durables, but not many really expensive things.	6	7	9	10	12	16	16	13	13	17
Can easily afford expensive things – an apartment, dacha, etc.	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	1	<1	1	<1

Contrary to media tropes about how Russia’s economic growth only benefits the oligarchs and Moscow, one of the clearest trends of the past decade has been the near extinction of extreme poverty at the bottom and the appearance of a substantial, consumerist middle-class at the top.

And you don’t even have to rely on Rosstat statistics for evidence of these developments. Just asking the Russian people would do – as Levada did in another poll inquiring about the percentage of their income that they spend on food.

In 1991, 30% of Russians spent “almost all” their family income to obtain the bare essentials for life. Throughout the 1990′s – the period of anarchy in the popular consciousness – this figure fluctuated in the 45-65% range. But after 1999, it began to plummet. It fell to 14% by 2007-09, remained unaffected by the economic crisis, and reached just 10% this year.

Levada data. Image source – Sublime Oblivion.

These tendencies are replicated in almost any other indicator of consumer affluence one cares to name – cell phones (universal); Internet (43%); etc. On most consumer fronts, Russia is converging to developed country levels. It is no longer the hungry and destitute country of the 1990′s – or, perhaps, some lingering perceptions in the West.

By and by, the figures on Internet penetration also put paid to another frequent trope – that Russians are starved of outside information and are therefore brainwashed into adulating Putin and his “regime.” Not very convincing when there is no major difference between support for the current political order between Muscovites with higher educations and rural pensioners, now is it?

Arctic Progress does not hold that there do not exist pockets of destitution in Russia, or that it does not incubate a great deal of inequality, privilege and injustice. On the other hand, we do believe that these negative sides are all too often overplayed in the Western media.

Wikileaks: Nordic Alliance Proposals Are “Dreams In Polar Fog”

Posted on February 4, 2011 by AK

Sweden’s Saab Gripen fighter. Image credit – Saab History.

In recent years, the idea of a “Nordic Pact” has been gaining traction, in large part thanks to the efforts of Thorvald Stoltenberg, a grand old man of Norwegian politics. In a February 9th, 2009, meeting of Nordic Foreign Ministers, he proposed 13 recommendations for increasing Nordic military and civil cooperation. Thanks to Wikileaks, we have detailed notes on what these are, thanks to the US ambassador at the Oslo station, Benson Whitney.

The recommendations vary in ambition and scope. They include: cooperation on military training and defense procurement; formation of joint medical, transport, lift capability, and amphibious units; cooperation on maritime monitoring (pollution, defense), emergency response, cyber defense, and war crimes prosecution; formation of a Nordic stabilization force to be deployed on UN-led missions or NATO, EU, etc. missions with a UN mandate; joint air patrols over Iceland with a permanent presence on Keflavik; a mutual defense commitment on the basis of NATO’s Article 5.

However, as the US ambassador makes clear in his cable, the reaction was mixed. While there is broad support on the proposals to cut soaring defense costs via greater Nordic cooperation and interoperability, Norwegian officials are far more skeptical about the grander plans, such as the Nordic mutual defense pact or joint responsibility for Icelandic air patrols. These the good ambassador called “dreams in polar fog” – and thus they’ve remained to this day.

Dreams in Polar Fog: Proposed Nordic Defense and Security Cooperation

Subject	Dreams In Polar Fog: Proposed Nordic Defense And Security Cooperation
Origin	Embassy Oslo
Cable time	Fri, 6 Mar 2009 11:29 UTC
Classification	CONFIDENTIAL
Reference id	09OSLO146
Source	http://213.251.145.96/cable/2009/03/09OSLO146.html
Release time	Thu, 13 Jan 2011 05:05 UTC
History	First added on Thu, 13 Jan 2011 07:37 UTC

VZCZCXRO2028 RR RUEHSR DE RUEHNY #0146/01 0651129 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 061129Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY OSLO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7402 INFO RUEHXP/ALL NATO POST COLLECTIVE RUEHHE/AMEMBASSY HELSINKI 8061 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 4038 RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 3373 RUEHNY/ODC OSLO NO RUEHNY/USDAO OSLO NO RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0259 RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0303 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OSLO 000146

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2019

TAGS: PNR PGOV [Internal Governmental Affairs] PREL [External Political Relations] MARR [Military and Defense Arrangements] MCAP [Military Capabilities] MOPS [Military Operations] DA [Denmark] IC [Iceland] FI [Finland; Aland Islands] SW [Sweden]
SUBJECT: DREAMS IN POLAR FOG: PROPOSED NORDIC DEFENSE AND SECURITY COOPERATION

REF: 08 OSLO 54

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Kevin . Johnson for reasons 1.4 b and d

1. (C) Summay: Challenged to re-invigorate Nordic cooperation, former Norwegian Foreign Minister (and father of PM Jens Stoltenberg) Thorvald Stoltenberg presented 13 recommendations proposing greater civil and military cooperation and a Nordic version of NATO’s Article Five. Stoltenberg delivered his wide-ranging (and non-binding) recommendations at the February 9 meeting of the Nordic Foreign Ministers. Norway’s current FM, Jonas Gahr Stoere, hailed the report as historic and modern. Reactions from other Norwegian policy-makers has been less enthusiastic, but several of the recommendations have potential to increase Nordic capabilities and cooperation in international operations, a plus for the UN and NATO. In addition, the U.S. could propose specific areas where we see Nordic cooperation contributing to NATO or U.S. priorities. End Summary.

A Nordic Article Five?

2. (C) The most attention-grabbing of Stoltenberg’s ideas was his call for a Nordic declaration of solidarity, including a mutually binding security policy guarantee. In his introductory press conference, Stoltenberg stressed that this proposal was not designed to take the place of existing treaty commitments, but should be viewed as something additional. Nonetheless, this idea was seen by some as a potential challenge to Swedish and Finnish neutrality and to Norway’s traditional transatlantic orientation. Reaction in Norway has been largely dismissive of the idea but it is easy to see echoes of a call by the Norwegian Socialist Left Party’s defense spokesman for a division of labor in the Nordics with Finland responsible for a joint army, Sweden for the air force and Norway for the navy. Senior Norwegian officials including the PM’s foreign policy advisor and the MFA’s political director have privately indicated to us that there is little or no interest in a Nordic solidarity declaration in the GON.

Saving Money and Sharing Responsibilities

3. (U) Declining defense budgets across the Nordic region have already inspired the Chiefs of Defense (CHOD) of Norway, Sweden and Finland to conduct a study on areas of possible cooperation. Stoltenberg expands on the CHODs’ study, proposing joint medical units, transport and lift capability (both air and sea), cooperation in training and education (including firing and exercise ranges) and joint equipment upgrades and purchases. Stoltenberg singled out army material as particularly promising citing the common use of all Nordics (with the exception of non-military Iceland) of Leopard 2 battle tanks, CV-90 combat vehicles and Sisu Pasi armored personnel carriers. Stoltenberg also proposed developing a joint amphibious unit, based on current cooperation between Sweden and Finland, which could be deployed anywhere in the Nordics and in international operations.

4. (C) Lest Iceland feel neglected, Stoltenberg proposed that the Nordics take on part of the responsibility for air surveillance and patrolling over Iceland. Initially this would be through participation in the regular Northern Viking exercises, followed by rotations in the NATO air patrol rotations and a possible permanent presence at Keflavik air base. Norway and Denmark already participate in the NATO program. Swedish and Finnish participation would require finalization of an agreement between NATO and Sweden and Finland on data exchange with NATO’s air defense system. In theory this sort of cooperation could be a practical example of cooperation under the Partnership for Peace program. Surprisingly, Norwegian officials have been very critical of this proposal, with the MFA’s Political Director and the PM’s International Advisor both expressing strong dislike for this item.

Keeping an eye on Polar Bears and Russians

5. (U) Maritime monitoring is a central focus of the report with three separate but interrelated recommendations. These include establishing a Nordic maritime monitoring system, a joint maritime response force, and a joint satellite system for surveillance and communications. The monitoring system and the satellite proposal all reflect the need for improvements in the ability to monitor civilian and military shipping, environmental data and pollution. This need will increase if shipping volume in the region increases due to sea ice melting or development of energy projects such as the Shtockman field. Norway is in the process of developing a civilian-military Barents Sea monitoring system called Barents Watch, and Sweden and Finland are currently expanding their joint defense surveillance system to the entire Baltic Sea. Stoltenberg calls for a joint Nordic effort to ensure that national efforts are combatable and do not replicate functions. A joint satellite would allow for complete and constant monitoring of the entire Nordic region, as well as enabling secure communications in the event of a crisis. Currently the Nordic nations purchase satellite services from U.S. and European suppliers which do not provide satisfactory coverage above 71 degrees north. Once a monitoring system is in place there will be a need for a response capability for search and rescue and other emergencies. This capability should include icebreakers fit for Arctic use. Although Baltic capabilities are strong, there are not currently enough resources to cover the vast sea areas under Norwegian, Danish (Greenland) and Icelandic control, particularly if shipping in the area increases.

Addressing 21st Century Challenges

6. (U) Stoltenberg also proposed a number of ideas which would increase civil cooperation including a Nordic stabilization task force, a joint disaster response unit, a Nordic resource network to protect against cyber attacks, a war crimes investigation unit, cooperation between foreign services, and on Arctic issues. The need for cooperation in war crimes prosecution, protection of infrastructure from cyber attack and on Arctic issues is clear and relatively non-controversial. Cooperation between foreign services is much more difficult and will likely be limited to countries where none of the Nordics have representation now.

7. (U) As envisioned, the Nordic stabilization task force would consist of military, humanitarian, state-building (police officers, judges, prison officers, election observers) and development assistance components. This unit would be intended for use in UN-led operations and for NATO, EU, AU or OSCE missions with a UN mandate. Stoltenberg proposes that the military forces allocated to this unit be drawn from those currently available for the EU Nordic Battle Group and the NATO Response Force.

Dreams or Reality?

8. (C) Comment: High defense costs, a genuine preference to work with other Nordics and clear regional needs are real factors which inspired the Stoltenberg study and which may result in some of his recommendations being followed. The Nordic Ministers will meet next on June 9 in Iceland and will announce which recommendations will be pursued. GON officials have uniformly stressed that where money can be saved and capabilities increased they are positive. They were much less positive about the grander ambitions, such as the Nordic solidarity declaration and taking over responsibility for Iceland’s air patrols. Where this study could result in something of value is primarily in any increase in military, international operations and surveillance capacity. Joint Nordic transport capabilities, medical teams, amphibious units, a stabilization task force and maritime awareness could be important contributions to UN, NATO or U.S. missions.

9. (C) The U.S. should encourage Nordic cooperation to the extent that it increases the Nordics’ willingness and ability to improve their internal and international capabilities to deal with global challenges. It may also be of benefit to propose specific issues where we see Nordic cooperation contributing to NATO or U.S. priorities, such as maritime monitoring of the Barents, the development of stabilization teams, increases in military capacity, prosecution of war criminals, etc.

WHITNEY

Russia’s Population Registers Small Decline In 2010

Posted on February 3, 2011 by AK

Image credit – Sublime Oblivion.

One of the most common tropes of Russia watchers eager to prove its “unstoppable decline,” if not “imminent collapse,” is to cite its plummeting population, collapsing birth rates, death spiral from alcoholism and rampant AIDS, etc.

This conventional wisdom, as it turns out, is mostly wrong. For a start, its population was roughly stable (or stagnant) from 2007, even eking out a small increase in 2009; its birth rates are now well above the European average; and though middle-aged male mortality, mostly attributable to excessive alcohol consumption, contributes to unacceptably high death rates, these have been coming down rapidly in recent years. While Russia’s demographic prospects are nothing to write home about, neither does it justify the apocalyptic rhetoric that is standard fare commentary on the subject.

For the detailed evidence – see my 10 Myths about Russia’s Demography.

According new figures released this week, we can say that 2010 saw a continuation of already existing trends. Births increased by 27,000 on 2009, with the birth rate rising from 12.4 / 1000 to 12.6 / 1000. But this was largely cancelled out by a 20,500 increase in deaths, causing the death rate to rise from 14.2 / 1000 to 14.3 / 1000. This however can be entirely attributed to the effect of the Great Russian Heatwave of 2010, which is estimated to have caused an excess 44,700 deaths. Canceling it out would produce a death rate of 14.0 / 1000.

Despite this once-in-10,000-years heatwave, the rate of natural decrease of the Russian population therefore continued to contract. It reached 241,400 in 2010 (cf. 248,800 in 2009), which is a far cry from the annual 800,000-950,000 natural decreases from 1994-2005.

This marginal improvement was more than overwhelmed by a substantial fall in net migration by 82,500 in Jan-Nov 2010 relative to the same period in 2009. This development was almost entirely caused by a reduction in immigration from the CIS countries. As a result, after a 23,300 increase in 2009, this year Russia’s population will again go briefly into the red; assuming that there was no major change in migration for December, it will decrease by about 50,000 this year.

Interestingly, despite the rise in death rates, Rosstat calculates that life expectancy actually increased from 68.7 years in 2009 to 69.0 years in 2010. We presume that this is because most of the heatwave casualties were the elderly, while the types of deaths common to young people – car accidents, murders, suicides, poisonings, etc. – continued falling.

As noted, nothing to write home about. But out of a total population of 141.8 millions, no cause for proclaiming Russia’s imminent demographic apocalypse either.

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