In our latest Global Sitrep, we cover a US businessman making big $ in breakaway Abkhazia, PLUS Mubarak’s fall, AI development, China’s drought and Japan’s political deadlock.

Pharaoh Replaced, System Remains

1. ELLIS GOLDBERG for Foreign Policy, Feb 11, 2011: Mubarakism Without Mubarak

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak gave into the demands of the protesters today, leaving Cairo and stepping down from power. That came hours after a speech, broadcast live across the world yesterday, in which he refused to do so. Earlier that day, the Supreme Military Council released a statement — labeled its “first” communiqué — that stated that the military would ensure a peaceful transition of Mubarak out of office. In practice, it appears that power has passed into the hands of the armed forces. This act was the latest in the military’s creep from applauded bystander to steering force in this month’s protests in Egypt. Since the protest movement first took shape on January 25, the military has, with infinite patience, extended and deepened its physical control of the area around Tahrir Square (the focal point of the protests) with concrete barriers, large steel plates, and rolls of razor wire. In itself, the military’s growing footprint was the next act in a slow-motion coup — a return of the army from indirect to direct control — the groundwork for which was laid in 1952.

The West may be worried that the crisis will bring democracy too quickly to Egypt and empower the Muslim Brotherhood. But the real concern is that the regime will only shed its corrupt civilians, leaving its military component as the only player left standing. Indeed, when General Omar Suleiman, the recently appointed vice president to whom Mubarak entrusted presidential powers last night, threatened on February 9 that the Egyptian people must choose between either the current regime or a military coup, he only increased the sense that the country was being held hostage.

AK – Two quick comments.

First, this is no real “democratic” revolution (as per the anti-Communist revolutions of the late 1980′s) nor is it an Islamic revival. The generals remain in control. Nasser’s military coup of 1952 in Egypt’s own history is the best model.

Second – no, regardless of speculation in Western and liberal Russia media outlets, the probability of something similar playing out in Russia is next to non-existent. Soaring food prices were the main cause of the unrest both in Tunisia and Egypt. Russia is more or less self-sufficient in food (and a net grain exporter), whereas Egypt imports 40% of its food (and 60% of its wheat), and the average Russian is about 3 times richer than the average Egyptian. As such, Egypt is far more vulnerable to fluctuations in international food prices.

And we don’t even have to go into facts such as that the demonstrated popularity of Russia’s leaders – both Medvedev and Putin retain approval ratings of more than 70% in opinion polls…

Towards Artilects

BRIAN CHRISTIAN for The Atlantic, March 2011: Mind vs. Machine

… I wake up in a hotel room 5,000 miles from my home in Seattle. After breakfast, I step out into the salty air and walk the coastline of the country that invented my language, though I find I can’t understand a good portion of the signs I pass on my way—LET AGREED, one says, prominently, in large print, and it means nothing to me.

I pause, and stare dumbly at the sea for a moment, parsing and reparsing the sign. Normally these kinds of linguistic curiosities and cultural gaps intrigue me; today, though, they are mostly a cause for concern. In two hours, I will sit down at a computer and have a series of five-minute instant-message chats with several strangers. At the other end of these chats will be a psychologist, a linguist, a computer scientist, and the host of a popular British technology show. Together they form a judging panel, evaluating my ability to do one of the strangest things I’ve ever been asked to do.

I must convince them that I’m human.

Fortunately, I am human; unfortunately, it’s not clear how much that will help.

Promise of Abkhazia

HALEY SWEETLAND EDWARDS for The Atlantic, March 2011: Boca on the Black Sea

THE REAL-ESTATE developer doesn’t seem to see the bullet holes in the cement wall behind him. Or the mortar-scarred apartment buildings. Or the half-bombed mansions where trees sprout through wallpapered living rooms. All the real-estate developer seems to see in Abkhazia, this breakaway territory wedged between Georgia and Russia along the Black Sea, is opportunity.

“This place could be the Florida of the Caucasus,” Bruce Talley says, jabbing my arm with excitement as we walk between two filthy concrete hotels. Gorbachev, Khrushchev, and Stalin all built vacation homes in the area, their porches overlooking a string of empty beaches, turquoise water, and looming mountains that tinge peach at sunset. “This is the ideal subtropical paradise for 145 million Russians, and there is nowhere for them to stay.”

АК – We consider Abkhazian real estate one of the best medium-term investments on Earth today. The situation there is likely the Balkan coastal regions in 2000. Political stability in the region has been restored, but mainstream investors are still too deterred by the recent past. But by 2010 the new resorts in places like Montenegro are flourishing – and the “crazy” developers who took the plunge a decade ago are now  sitting on big fat wads of cash.

China’s Drought Grinds On

JONATHAN WYATT for The Guardian, Feb 11, 2011: China bids to ease drought with $1bn emergency water aid

China has announced a billion dollars in emergency water aid to ease its most severe drought in 60 years, as the United Nations warned of a threat to the harvest of the world’s biggest wheat producer.

Beijing has also promised to use its grain reserves to reduce the pressure on global food prices, which have surged in the past year to record highs due to the floods in Australia and a protracted dry spell in Russia.

Scandal!

LEE FANG for Think Progress, Feb 10, 2011: US Chamber’s Lobbyists Solicited Hackers To Sabotage Unions, Smear Chamber’s Political Opponents

ThinkProgress has learned that a law firm representing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the big business trade association representing ExxonMobil, AIG, and other major international corporations, is working with set of “private security” companies and lobbying firms to undermine their political opponents, including ThinkProgress, with a surreptitious sabotage campaign.

Japan’s Deadlock

TODD CROWELL for Real Clear World, Feb 11, 2011: Is Japan Headed for Government Shutdown?

TOKYO – If you think that President Barack Obama has trouble with gridlock in Congress, consider the position of Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan. All the elements of gridlock are in place: a divided legislature, an opposition bent on obstruction, falling approval ratings and a stagnant economy. Sound familiar?

If Kan’s Democratic Party of Japan cannot pass the fiscal 2011 budget and related money bills by March 31, specifically legislation enabling the government to issue bonds needed to finance itself, Tokyo could be looking at a $400 billion revenue shortfall. Roughly half of the budget is covered through borrowing.

One might wonder how a party with a more than 150-seat majority in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Japan’s bicameral parliament, could have such trouble getting its way. If Japan were Britain, with its weak upper chamber the House of Lords, this wouldn’t be the case.